The buoyant American labor market minimally stopped employment creation in April. The report published Friday by the Office of Labor Statistics just one month after Donald Trump declared the commercial war to the entire world shows that the first economy of the world generated 177,000 jobs in the month, a minimum cut with respect to the March revised figure. The uncertainty caused by the president’s erratic economic and commercial policy has failed to overcome the resistance of the labor market.
Economists expected the creation of some 135,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate was maintained at 4.2%. Although the unemployment rate has met expectations, job creation has been greater than expected. The Labor Statistics Office has reviewed the employment creation of March, which initially encrypted in 228,000 positions and now leaves in 185,000, so that in April the rhythm was practically maintained. On the other hand, the February figure has been reviewed down, from 117,000 to 102,000 jobs.
The job creation figure is, in fact, slightly above the average of 152,000 jobs in the last 12 months.
The new labor market data arrive in the same week when the Office of Economic Analysis has published its estimate that the economy was contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years, as a consequence precisely from Trump’s measures.
The contraction was due to the increase in imports to anticipate the commercial war. Employment figures show the strength of the transport and storage sector, which increased by 29,000 positions in April, after just registering changes in the previous month (3,000). The figure may be related to an increase in commercial activity at the beginning of the commercial war. In April, jobs were created in the storage and deposit sectors (10,000), messaging and urgent transport (8,000) and air transport (3,000). The transport and storage sector had created an average of 12,000 jobs per month during the previous 12 months. Instead, industrial employment – which Trump wants to boost with its tariffs – was reduced slightly in April.
In the month of April, the cutting of federal employees was noticed as a result of the layoffs undertaken by the Government Efficiency Department (Doge) of Elon Musk. There were 9,000 less workers in the month and the cut measure since January is 26,000. In addition, uncertainty was extended by the economy as a whole with the announcement of wild tariffs to imports from all over the world, then paved again and again in the face of market pressure, in a kind of implicit recognition of the mistakes made.
Numerous companies have reduced or retired their forecasts as a result of the impact of the commercial war. The advancement of some purchases has also been appreciated to try to dodge the increases in prices rigged to tariffs. Surveys show a collapse of consumer confidence and an unprecedented increase in inflation expectations.
The evolution of the labor market does not seem to be enough to force the Federal Reserve to resume the reduction of interest rates next week. Trump has attacked the independence of the Central Bank, claiming a cut in the price of money. After threatening to dismiss him, the president seems to want to convert Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve, in the scapegoat of the measures with which he himself has weighed the US economy.
Powell, however, has pointed out that he needs to have greater clarity about the impact of economic policy changes before taking a step with interest rates. The rise in tariffs has complicated the Central Bank the achievement of its two objectives: price stability and the creation of the maximum possible employment. For now, the labor market does not give alarm signs to lift surveillance on prices.
Investors take for granted that the types will remain in the range of 4.25% -4.50% at the meeting of May 7. However, they are mostly inclined to a cut of 0.25 points for June 18. Powell could leave the door open for it at the press conference after the meeting next week, but given the changing situation, it is likely to refer to the evolution of the next data.
