Nine out of ten Brazilians do not regret their vote in the last presidential elections, in 2022, according to a survey this week. This data seems to anticipate that the electoral duel that will be resolved in October 2026 will be tough, because there has never been a victory as close as that one in Brazil. The winner took less than two points from the loser. The biggest unknown on this occasion is who will compete at the polls with the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80 years old, who aspires to re-election to round out his career with a fourth term. And for now everything on the right revolves around the Bolsonaro clan and its political brand. The patriarch, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, 70 years old, wants his eldest son on the ballot. From the cell where he is imprisoned, he has already launched him as a pre-candidate. The Bolsonaro surname is still an invaluable political asset for his family; On the other hand, for his allies on the less ideological right, he has become more of a liability.
Although the announcement has been welcomed by foreign ultras, such as the Argentine president, Javier Milei, or the Spanish Santiago Abascal, leader of Vox, the reaction in Brazil is far from enthusiasm, according to the signals from the center-right and the polls.
The chosen one is Flávio Bolsonaro, 44 years old, known in the family as 01. A lawyer, he has spent half his life in politics, now in the Senate. The first stages of the campaign are a festival of negotiations on many sides, gestures and statements that analysts read like tea leaves.
Bolsonarism has suffered a painful defeat before its bête noire, the powerful judge Alexandre de Moraes, which is also humiliating because it is the work of the president of the United States, Donald Trump. Washington has withdrawn sanctions against him and his wife, instigated by a son of Bolsonaro.
The family has managed to return attention to the father’s imprisonment, in exchange for shelving the demand for an amnesty. The Chamber of Deputies has opened the door to reducing prison sentences for coup plotters, including the former president. To begin with, the measure has the support of the major newspapers, which have editorialized in favor of reducing sentences that they describe as exaggerated.
A little over a month after entering prison, Bolsonaro left his private cell to undergo surgery. On Christmas Day morning he underwent surgery for a double hernia in the groin at a private hospital in Brasilia. The operation was authorized by Judge Moraes, who imposed several restrictions: Federal Police agents guarding his room 24 hours a day, a total ban on cell phones and any other electronic device in the room, and visits only from his wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and two of his children: Councilman Carlos Bolsonaro and Senator Flávio. The latter took advantage of the operation to read, from the hospital door, a letter written by Bolsonaro, in which he reiterates that he is the one chosen to replace him in the 2026 presidential elections. “I give up the most important thing in the life of a father: his own son, to rescue our Brazil. It is a conscious, legitimate decision and supported by the desire to preserve the representation of those who trusted me,” says part of the message.
Already in the campaign, Flávio appeals to the fact that he has the last name in his blood. But he also presents himself to the electorate as “a more focused, more moderate Bolsonaro” than the patriarch. And to prove it, he says that he did get vaccinated against covid, twice.
With this speech he appeals to the classic center-right, to the electorate – and the parties – who are the balance, those who decide the elections. But those acronyms, known as the center (the great center), with little or no ideological content, had another preferred candidate, also conservative, also liberal, but, importantly, not named Bolsonaro. For that constellation of parties, if it cannot be the original Bolsonaro because he is in a cell for a good season, better someone outside the family than a bad copy. And none of the four adult children—all in politics—has inherited their father’s charisma.
The favorite of center It is clearly Tarcísio de Freitas, 50 years old, governor of São Paulo, and if not, other center-right governors, as Gilberto Kassab, one of Brazil’s most prominent political operators, made clear. When Kassab comes out of the backroom to speak in public, political Brazil takes note. And this Thursday he made it clear that he is not betting on a Bolsonaro. “I still understand that Tarcísio is the best candidate for Brazil (…) I wish Flávio good luck. If Tarcísio is not a candidate, we will support one of the two (governors).”
De Freitas, whom everyone knows by his first name, moves between total loyalty to Bolsonaro, who made him minister and governor of the richest state, and emphasis on his more technocratic and moderate profile. He knows that age works in his favor, he is in no hurry to run for the Presidency.
In the most recent Datafolha poll, Lula would beat Flávio by 15 points in a second round. De Freitas, the current president, would get five points. And between them stands another Bolsonaro in the simulation, Michelle Bolsonaro, 43 years old, the patriarch’s third wife.
Because the family pulse is added to the pulse of the clan with the rest of the right. The former first lady is the most charismatic of the Bolsonaros after her husband. Her name sounds like a hypothetical candidate for vice president with the governor of São Paulo or as a senator.
Mrs. Bolsonaro put aside her initial reluctance to embark on a political career that has taken off more than many, including her husband, predicted. As president of the area dedicated to women of the Liberal Party, in which a good part of the family is active, she is a good hook to attract conservative voters.
After a strong public confrontation with her stepchildren, over a regional candidacy, which the patriarch had to pacify and the announcement that he wants Flávio as his replacement, she fell ill. He has taken medical leave and put his political activity on hold. The congress of the women’s wing of the PL, scheduled for this Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, has been postponed.
When at the end of the eighties the Brazilian army showed Jair Bolsonaro the exit door due to serious threats and indiscipline, the soldier in the reserve saw an opportunity to make a living in politics. He started as a councilor in Rio de Janeiro, defending soldiers’ salary demands. And, election by election, he built what seemed like a dull political career. Of course, with a strategic objective, not to neglect the future of their wives and children. One by one, he encouraged them to follow in his footsteps and thus a kind of Bolsonaro SA was born, something that is also not uncommon in this country of political dynasties.
His first wife, Rogéria Bolsonaro, mother of his three oldest children, was one of the first members… until, taking advantage of the fact that he was already in Congress in Brasilia, she decided to defend her own opinions and positions as a councilor in Rio. The patriarch did not hesitate to launch against her one of the children they have in common, then a 17-year-old boy, who made his debut in public life by taking the family seat from his mother.
A quarter of a century later, Bolsonaro Sr., known to the family as the captain, the main asset of the family brand, is imprisoned and disqualified for leading a coup attempt. But he has his people strategically distributed.
Senator Flávio, 01, tries to overcome the many resistances for a presidential race; Councilman Carlos, 43 years old, known as 02, has just announced that he is leaving the Rio seat that he took from his mother to make the leap to the Senate; Congressman Eduardo o 03, 41 years old, went to live in the United States to get support from Trump and the ultra-international network to save his father and is now accused of coercion by the Supreme Court, with no signs of returning in the short term; Renan Jair or 04, 27 years old, son of the second marriage, achieved his first term as councilor after being elected with the best vote in the city of Balneario Camboriú.
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