The oil market has changed a lot in recent decades. The emergence of American crude oil, the energy transition and the growing geopolitical volatility have forced the organization of oil exporting countries and its allies (OPEC+) to adapt quickly so as not to lose quota in front of non -aligned competitors such as the United States or Brazil. In this context, the cartel agreed on Sunday a new increase in production in 547,000 barrels per day as of September. With this increase, the cartel has reversed the cuts the volunteer cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day launched in 2023.
“In view of the stability of world economic perspectives and the solid foundations of the market, reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries (Saudi, Russia, Iraq, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) will implement a production adjustment of 547,000 barrels per day in September 2025, Web page.
The 2023 cut was a direct response to the rise of oil in the United States, which sank prices and forced large producers to limit the offer. However, since last April, the alliance led by Saudi Arabia has reoriented its strategy. Just four months ago, when investors tried to assimilate the White House Protectionist order, the cartel surprised with the increase in production in 411,000 barrels per day from May, an amount that widely exceeded the provisions of analysts.
The first estimates pointed out that the reversal of the cuts applied between 2022 and 2023 would be completed in mid -2026. But the repeated breach of the quotas by some members and the Saudi determination for recovering the lost terrain have accelerated the calendar. Analysts expect that, after the anticipated purpose of the voluntary cut, the OPEC+ pauses to evaluate the evolution of demand and the economic context. “The eight OPEC+ countries will meet monthly to review market conditions, compliance and compensation. The next meeting will be held on September 7, 2025,” the Alliance says.
The increase in supply has contributed to stabilize crude oil prices, even in an environment of growing geopolitical tensions. In April, while investors tried to decipher the impact of tariffs on the economy and the fears of recession extended by the markets, the decision of the OPEC+ to raise production pushed the Brent at least four years. The recovery soon arrived. The tariff truce and the increase in instability in the Middle East caused black gold to rebound, but did it with less intensity than in previous war episodes. The expectations of deceleration of the economy and especially the US capacity to resume the activity in unconventional deposits acted as a firewall.
The OPEC+ decision coincides with a especially delicate moment, marked by Donald Trump’s new threats to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers – as India – if Moscow and kyiv do not reach a high fire. A possible interruption of energy flows from Russia could shoot crude oil prices and add pressure on central banks, particularly on the Federal Reserve, which seeks to contain inflation without drowning economic growth.
However, beyond political noise, the market seems conditioned by a deeper structural trend: oversupply. The International Energy Agency (AIE) has already warned that more oil is extracted than consumed, especially in a moderate global growth scenario. The economic cooling signals in the US, together with the weakness of Europe, feed that perception. The return of the 1.66 million barrels withdrawn in 2022, scheduled by the end of 2026, could be postponed if the demand does not respond.
In this environment, OPEC+ seeks to reinvent itself without losing its influence. The new cycle will not be marked only by wars and supply shocks, but also by the energy transition, the competition of new producers and political unpredictability. Oil, although it has lost prominence with respect to previous decades, it remains a key piece of the global economic and geopolitical board. In a year marked by armed conflicts and commercial tensions, Brent has registered strong oscillations: it went from 60 dollars in early April to 81 in June, after the US attack to Iranian nuclear facilities. Waiting for the market to digest the decision announced this weekend, the Brent accumulates a 6.7 % drop so far from 2025 and is below $ 70.
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