The Chilean electoral train does not stop. After constituent processes failed between 2020 and 2023 that repeatedly summoned the citizens to the polls, and the elections with a mandatory nature of the national and local authorities, 15,700,000 million people are called to choose on November 16 to the next Parliament and the president of Chile that will govern after Gabriel Boric, between March 2026 and March 2030. It is a polarized election. Two months after the elections, there is no political space for big surprises. Although there will be eight candidates on the ballot, everything indicates that the definition will be between José Antonio Kast, the candidate of the Republican party, of the extreme right that is recognized near Vox, the Spanish formation led by Santiago Abascal; and the militant of the Communist Party, Jeannette Jara, who was Minister of the Labor of the Government of Buric and elected in the primaries of this political sector as the unique candidate on the left. Jara won broadly on June 29 to the candidate of the moderate left, Carolina Tohá, Minister of Interior of Boric.
It is the first time that the mandatory voting system will be in force in a presidential since it was replaced in 2022. This element increases the uncertainty of the results, but the surveys show marked trends. The criteria survey of the month of August, released this Sunday, indicates that in the spontaneous Kast preferences it is installed in the first place with 30%, Jara is in 27%and Evelyn Matthei, of the traditional right, is quite below both, with 14%, although indisputably in third place. With seven points down there are Johannes Kaiser -auto -off libertarian -, populist Franco Parisi and former socialist Marco Enriquez Ominami, who is presented for the fifth time to the presidential ones. His best performance was 15 years ago, in the 2009 elections, when he obtained 20% and enhanced the first triumph on the right.
The same criteria survey, in a closed list, projects the first round stage: Kast leads with 30%, Jara reaches 28%and Matthei, 14%. They would go to the ballot, therefore, Kast and Jara. Although at some point in this 2025 the analysts came to project that the two candidates on the right to second round could pass, this picture is practically impossible: Jara has shown to be a competitive letter, despite the problems caused by the high leadership of his party, the PC, and Matthei has been disrepiated without being rebounded.
When Criteria analyzes the second round scenarios, however, Jara loses to both opposition candidates. It would obtain 32% compared to 50% of Kast and 32% against 42% of Matthei. The communist flag bearer would only exceed populist Parisi, according to criteria, but not for much: 34% against 31%.
But the citizen pulse survey, also released this Sunday, shows Jara first, in the question with a closed list. It gives 24.6% to the candidate on the left, while Kast 19.4%. Matthei, again, is in third place in this opinion study, with 13.1%. Citizen Pulse makes a forecast: he says that Jara will reach 32.2%, Kast will get 25.4%and Matthei 17.1%. The two right, in any case, in this survey add up to more than 42%, 10 points more than the flag bearer of the leftist ruling. According to citizen pulse, already 65.7% are very determined in their vote for November. In view of the ballot of December 14, however, it shows that both Kast and Matthei would beat Jara. Kast would beat him for 37.4% against 32.9%, while Matthei would exceed the communist candidate for 34.8% against 29.1%.
Despite Jara’s competitiveness, who has shown to be a good candidate, although with a very large weight for her PC militancy, the air of Chilean politics continue to blow in favor of the right and, above all, for the commitment to a change. The focus of attention is no longer in the Boric government, six months after its end, but in the project that will happen from next March 11. In any case, the leftist executive continues to maintain around 30% support, which has been almost invariable throughout the four -year mandate. It is a percentage that is not little, but it does not serve to build majorities, so Jara tries to expand its support base with a convening and center -left speech. The top communist leaders, however, have not left the way open for Jara to applaud the fears.
Kast, meanwhile, is committed not to make mistakes and its program does not include great proposals in individual freedoms, to avoid the rejection that its conservative agenda generated in its previous two applications to La Moned THE FORCE OF CHANGE. Kast’s Republican party has never been in a government, which helps him before an electorate who prefers change before the experience. Although this political formation was at the head of the second constitutional proposal that, like the first, was also a fiasco.
“We do not come to administer mediocrity, but to make a radical change,” Kast said this Sunday in an interview with the newspaper Mercury.
Matthei, meanwhile, has avoided ensuring that he will call for him if – as indicated – it is Kast who goes on the second round. The moderate right, although it was the favorite to keep the choice, has taught how to lose a career. Matthei has made successive mistakes, has failed to form teams of excellence (distrustful of political parties) and has not been able dictatorship
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