With all possible caveats, which are many in the case of a president as volatile as Donald Trump, the entry into force of the punishment of up to 50% on imports from India closes the United States tariff circle over its former commercial partners, relegated today to the role of simple suppliers. Negotiations open with several of them (with India herself, as well as with China, Canada or Mexico, the triad of nations that adds almost half of American imports) remain open, but all of them already have a base figure, a tariff land on which to build – or, in most cases, deconstruct – their once solid commercial ties.
Internal and external policy on the margin, the new tariff box draws a new scene for exchanges. Anticipates less international trade. A GROWING GROWTH. Less American imports, no matter how much the great consumer of the planet. Higher prices for the companies and homes of that country, although the initial bundle is not letting themselves feel with the expected force in the first inflation readings: time to time. And it also allows to venture important competitiveness among the countries that meet the voracious demand of the US, with almost 350 million inhabitants and indisputable consumerism.
Competitiveness gaps
There are those that, despite the coup that supposes any tariff and despite the obvious resignation and surrender, they come out relatively well stopped in comparative terms. That is the case of the United Kingdom, whose historical ties – and a surprisingly good relationship of the Republican with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in the ideological antipodes – they have earned him to ensure an extra cost of only 10%. The youngest of the world, together with Australia, also Anglo -Saxon, also of the Commonwealth and, paradoxically, also governed by the Labor.
One step behind appears the European Union, a priority objective of the Trumpia invective and indicated for their surrender in the July negotiations, but whose tariff (15%) limits the damage to the ability to compete of their exports. The twenty-seven remain, related to New Zealand, the US key ally in a region as fundamental as Asia-Pacific. With Japan, essential in the counterweight game against China. With South Korea, whose economy and defensive capabilities largely depend on Washington and that, like the EU, has just sealed its commercial pact in the White House. With the Türkiye of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to whom he dedicated great praises in his first mandate. And with the Israel of Benjamín Netanyahu, whom he has given wide manga in Gaza, with few, very few reproaches, for the atrocities he is committing on the Palestinian population.
Much more open is the commercial scenario with Mexico and Canada, two highly dependent economies of the neighboring country but still have in the T-MEC agreement, signed at the end of 2018 by the will of Trump himself, an important protective umbrella for the bulk of their sales. In the first case, the general tariff for goods not included in the treaty is 25%. In the second, the figure has just passed from 25% to 35%.
Brazil and Switzerland
Much worse unemployed other large exporters come out. The 50% tax that the White House applies to the products from India since Wednesday not only places it – together with Brazil – as the most taxed country in the world in that group of main partners. It also implies the practice disqualification of exchanges: few goods capable of supporting a burden of that draft and still competitive are few. Hence the figure is considered more a starting point for negotiation with the most populous country in the world – in parallel to what the conversations with Russia can give to end the invasion of Ukraine – than the end of the road.
The cases of Brazil and, to a lesser extent, of Switzerland, are the most paradigmatic. In the first, by the amount (50%) and for the reasons wielded by Trump: it does not obey any imbalance – the South American country is, in fact, one of the few who buys the US more than it sells – but to a purely political and favor treatment for his friend Jair Bolsonaro, the former president in household prison and judged these days for his implication in the attempted attempt of 2023.
The Helvetic Confederation, immersed in a permanent state of stupefaction since Washington endorsed a 39%tariff, a figure only surpassed by the aforementioned cases of India and Brazil, in addition to Laos, Myanmar and Syria, it is perhaps the one that best illustrates how the Republican tycoon is spent. A failed conversation with the president and head of Finance Switzerland, Karin Keller-Sutter, on July 31, he led to a humiliating rate and a “horror scenario” for their companies, according to the employer.
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