In recent days, former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe has spoken on social networks and given speeches about Gustavo Petro, about the diplomatic crisis with the United States, about the 2026 presidential elections. He has not said anything about a judicial decision that will define his future in public debate. This Tuesday, the Superior Court of Bogotá will begin the hearing at eight in the morning in which it will announce whether it upholds the conviction of the Antioquia politician for witness tampering. Judge Sandra Heredia sentenced him to 12 years of house arrest, which was to take effect immediately. Uribe appealed the ruling and waived the statute of limitations on the case, which gave the Court two years to decide. But the three magistrates in charge are already ready to define whether the leader of the Colombian right will soon be in prison and, in that way, on the margin he has to maintain a central role in the campaign prior to the presidential and legislative elections next semester.
Magistrates have several options. They could confirm the sentence, including twelve years of house arrest. Judge Heredia argued that the number of years – long in the opinion of several criminal lawyers – and the immediate detention were imperative given the determining role that Uribe has had in the political life of Colombia in the last two decades. They could also maintain Uribe’s responsibility but reduce the sentence, or deny any of the crimes: the first instance condemns him for procedural fraud, in two situations, and for bribery of witnesses in criminal proceedings, in three instances. But they can also revoke the ruling and acquit the former president.
Whatever happens, it is most likely that the decision will be appealed, by Uribe if a conviction is upheld, or by those who have been recognized victims in the process, such as the Minister of Justice, Eduardo Montealegre, and the senator and left-wing presidential candidate, Iván Cepeda. The file would go on appeal to the Supreme Court of Justice, where this long criminal history began. In 2012, that court received a complaint from Uribe against Cepeda, alleging witness manipulation. In 2018, its magistrates not only closed the investigation, but also opened another against the former president, accusing him of the same crime. The case progressed and, in 2020, Uribe resigned from his seat in the Senate, so the case left that court and headed to the Attorney General’s Office, which was then headed by an ally of Uribism, Francisco Barbosa.
Under that administration, the Prosecutor’s Office asked on three occasions to close the file, arguing that there was not enough evidence, but different judges considered that there was. When there was a change of Prosecutor at the beginning of 2024, with Luz Adriana Camargo, replaced by President Petro, the Prosecutor’s Office changed the course of the case, formally accused Uribe and thus came Judge Heredia’s decision. In his sentence, he points out that several Uribe emissaries offered judicial benefits to imprisoned people to testify against Cepeda. Specifically, lawyer Diego Cadena approached former paramilitary Juan Guillermo Monsalve and his partner, Dayanira Gómez, for this. The last two testified in court against Uribe and the criminal. A judge sentenced Cadena to seven years in prison. Although Uribe’s defense argued that his client did not know what Cadena was offering, the judge cited several intercepted conversations to conclude that there was an agreement between the politician and the lawyer that proves the opposite.
The president has not dedicated the last two and a half months to talking about his court case, but to finding the strategy for the electoral victory of the right in 2026. In several messages he refers to the importance of the union of the dozens of candidates critical of the left-wing Government, in order to defeat Petro’s candidates, whose project he disqualifies as “neocommunism.” In addition to organizing the mechanism to elect his party’s candidate, he has met with others such as former journalist Vicky Dávila, former minister Juan Carlos Pinzón and lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella, and has organized virtual debates between candidates about their government proposals. He has also sought to arrange a meeting with another of the heavyweights of the right and his former rival, former vice president Germán Vargas Lleras, head of the Cambio Radical party.
If the Court condemns Uribe, it would take away from his party, Centro Democrático, a key card with a view to 2026. The group plans for Uribe Vélez to be part of its list for the Senate, a formula that worked in 2014 and 2018 to mark a high vote. The National Electoral Council has already accepted a preliminary complaint against the former president, due to the announcement that he would occupy line 25 on the list and the possibility that he will be disqualified due to the ruling in the first instance. This is despite the fact that Uribe Vélez has not formally registered, nor is the ruling of the second instance known.
The Democratic Center has not had an easy time, after the assassination of its most voted senator, Miguel Uribe Turbay, who aspired to the presidency. Uribe Vélez pressured, among other electoral tactics for victory, for the deceased senator’s father to be one of the Democratic Center’s candidates.
Due to the high political profile of those involved, the ruling will also represent a victory or defeat for the left, especially for Senator Cepeda. As a pre-candidate, he will face the former Minister of Health, Carolina Corcho, on Sunday in a popular consultation that will decide the candidate of the ruling Historical Pact. A new conviction against Uribe could give him momentum as the politician who has managed to get the former president convicted – and not just anyone, but the one who has represented the antithesis to the left. An acquittal of Uribe could have the opposite effect. The sentence, in addition to Uribe’s freedom, will set the tone of the campaign.
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