The Portuguese policy will live a revolution, if the forecasts in the polls are confirmed after today’s elections, which give a victory to the AD conservative coalition, led by Luís Montenegro, and the possibility that the outraged re -recreate becomes the second force, ahead of the Socialist Party. The three surveys disseminated at this time show that AD will slightly improve their 2024 results and that the socialists will suffer a great setback, with the risk of becoming third force in the assembly and being advanced by André Ventura’s populist project.
The projections of three television networks agree to attribute the victory to AD, with percentages that go between 29% and 35.1%. The second position would be disputed in the PS and Chega. Socialists would range between 19.4% and 26%, while the ultra -right could reach between 19, 25.5%.
With 66% of the scrutiny already carried out, AD would reach 37.39%, the PS, 23.2% and Chega, 23%. This would confirm the definitive burial of bipartisanship that has distinguished Portuguese politics since the carnation revolution in 1974, but also the abandonment of the idea that Portuguese society was spared to the left. The sum of leftist forces is the most irrelevant in the history of the country’s democracy.
It seemed that on the election Sunday I was going to imitate the lived one year ago, but the preferences show deep changes. Against the theorists of electoral fatigue, the Portuguese voted more than in 2024: 61.79%, almost two more points (59.84%) than in March 2024. Nothing to do with the historical tails that were formed before the electoral colleges 50 years ago to choose the deputies who would have to write the Constitution, but then the Portuguese voted freely after the first century after the first century after the first century after the first century after the middle And now they vote for almost every year, at least since 2022. On this occasion, forced by the fall of the government of the conservative coalition AD due to the crisis open for a matter of political ethics of the Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, which kept the family business, spinumviva operational, when he reached the position.
The initial reactions, before the final scrutiny, showed the jubilation in the headquarters of AD and Chega. “Ad came out reinforced from this electoral act,” said Hugo Soares, president of the parliamentary group of AD. “The country has reinforced confidence in the government and the head of government, Luís Montenegro,” he said.
To that somewhat welcome feeling to Marmota, also contributes the fact that neither the faces of the posters nor the programs have varied. The candidates of the eight forces with parliamentary representation are identical to the 2024 campaign and the main duel again faces the leader of the conservative coalition (AD), Luís Montenegro, with the socialist Pedro Nuno Santos. The only novelty of the day has been the emotion that Sporting followers still terminate, who during the previous night held their victory in the Portuguese League for irritation of Benfica’s fans. His duel is almost as mythological as those who measure Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid.
And also unexpected was the aggression that Miguel Coelho, president of the Board of Fantage (District) of Santa Maria Maior, in Lisbon, at the hands of a Chega supporter when they found themselves in an electoral school. For the rest, normality. André Ventura, leader of Chega, voted in Lisbon, free at the end of the gauze he maintained after leaving Thursday from the hospital due to spasms in the esophagus, as well as Pedro Nuno Santos, who came again accompanied by his son. Luís Montenegro, however, did it in Espinho, where he has the family residence, also the registered office of the famous spinumviva who has led to this campaign, in the same electoral school where he voted for the first time in 1991.
The great issue is whether this redundancy will be reflected in the results and will cause a night not suitable for cardiac ailments such as March 10, 2024, when the difference of votes between AD and Socialist Party (PS) was just 51,000 suffrages and two seats. Until one in the morning it was not entirely clear who the winner was, although the polls at the ballothed had anticipated a comfortable victory of Montenegro. In case of a tie, the vote from abroad can be crucial, where a million and a half of Portuguese have the right to choose four deputies (two for the constituency of Europe and two for the rest of the world). The result of the count will not be known until May 28.
The previous elections, also anticipated by the resignation of the socialist António Costa as prime minister in November 2023 when he was involved in a judicial investigation that 18 months later still does not give results, marked two important milestones. On the one hand, the left shrunk its weight in the Assembly of the Republic to 40%, the third lowest percentage of all democracy. On the other, the ultra -right broke the bipartisanship that had characterized the Portuguese policy since the carnation revolution when receiving more than one million votes and obtaining 50 seats. André Ventura’s triumph, with a radical match that only had a five-year history, did not alter Luís Montenegro’s plans to keep the sanitary cord against the extreme-right.
One of tonight’s unknowns is to know if Montenegro will continue refractory to the agreements with the extreme right if he achieves an insufficient victory. The leader of AD has clear his willingness to agree with liberal initiative, fourth parliamentary formation. It is a corresponding love. But if, as the polls indicate, the sum of both does not guarantee absolute majority, the prime minister would face a Calvary similar to that he has lived this year in the Assembly. On more than one occasion he has had to approve measures imposed by the opposition with which he disagreed, such as the elimination of tolls on some highways. And we must not forget that, a few months after assuming the position, he had several secret meetings with André Ventura to try to get his support to approve the budgets.
If the victory is socialist, Pedro Nuno Santos would have an even more devilish scenario than Montenegro, since the polls do not foresee that the parliamentary weight of the left will overcome that of the right. The PS leader has demanded in a “reciprocity” campaign to the conservative coalition to let them govern, as they did when voting against two censorship motions, support the budgets and agree on the presidency of the Chamber.
The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, will summon the leaders of all parties from Monday to know their preferences to try to get a stable governance. In his Saturday speech, he encouraged the Portuguese to vote in uncertain times. “Not participating makes even less sense than in other elections, it is burying the head in the sand,” he said.
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