President Javier Milei emerged triumphant and smiling from the race, and that is already a lot, given the quagmire in which he seemed to sink. He won 41% of the votes at the national level, took a wide margin from Peronism and other opposition forces, and has the right to celebrate. But when the dust settles he must face an even greater challenge. He must recalibrate his management, he must draw legislative alliances and for that he must recalibrate himself, away from the shouting, the insults and the chainsaw. Can it?
Argentina organized its mid-term national legislative elections this Sunday, in which half of the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate were renewed, a test that usually measures support for the current Government. But in practice it became a virtual plebiscite on the present and future of Milei, in the midst of record social apathy: barely 67.85% of the electorate voted—the lowest figure since the return of democracy in 1983 for a midterm election—although voting in this country is mandatory.
After the polls, the hugs and the celebrations with his people, however, the President knows that a stage of his Government has ended, as it has developed up to this point. He must now renew his cabinet, he must build bridges with political spaces that he has despised since December 2023 – in his speech last night he gave several nods in that direction – and he must also rethink certain aspects of his economic plan, although he did not give any hint of that… On the contrary.
The new Congress that will take office on December 10, Milei remarked last night, “will be fundamental.” He estimated that they will have 110 legislators in Deputies and 20 senators, including their own and those close to them, and that they will seek to seal “basic agreements” with other political spaces that will allow them, he was excited, to have the “most reformist Legislative Branch in Argentine history”, despite the “always misfits” and the “Argentines who want to go back.”
The polls, for now, gave him support and an opportunity. Because recalibrating a presidential administration after a victory with 41% of the votes throughout the country—according to official counts—is not the same as losing and with 30% or less social support. But victory is also a risk, because it can blind the head of state, leading him to believe that the Argentines gave him monolithic support for everything he has done—or refused to do—until now. Or even believe that you received a blank check until 2027. That is not the case.
He must recalibrate, first, because Milei and the libertarians did not reach their own majority in Deputies, although it was close. And more than a third of the seats were guaranteed, which will allow him to block any new attempt by Congress to reverse its vetoes on bills promoted by the opposition and dispel the shadows of an eventual impeachment. For this reason, as of December 10, when the new deputies and senators take office, they will depend on the agreements they forge with like-minded legislators and governors to promote the “second generation” reforms they desire. Whether they are in the labor, tax, pension or any other field. Or to approve the specifications of judges, prosecutors, ministers of the Supreme Court or the new Attorney General of the Nation.
Milei must also recalibrate because several Cabinet bishops have said goodbye to him in recent days or are packing their suitcases. Gerardo Werthein and Mariano Cúneo Libarona have already emptied their offices in the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Justice. And on December 10, as a deadline, the until now Ministers of Security and Defense – Patricia Bullrich and Luis Petri – will leave to occupy legislative seats, as well as the presidential spokesperson, Manuel Adorni.
Five weighty figures leaving cause a substantial renovation in any cabinet. But at this time many also look at the Chief of Staff, Guillermo Francos, as the next official who could say goodbye. Will Santiago Caputo, until now an unsigned advisor, occupy his chair? And if it is not his, will Francos be willing to share power with the man who proclaims himself “the Wizard of the Kremlin? And what will happen with Karina Milei? The sister accumulates sparks with Caputo and between them it is a zero-sum question. What one gains, the other will lose. Or vice versa.
If building bridges with legislators and governors, and reassembling the cabinet are already major challenges for Milei, famous for his disinterest – or contempt – for everything related to politics and management, the third mountain that he must – or should – face will be more steep. Which? That of your economic plan. Will you be willing to partially modify the roadmap and, therefore, admit that you were wrong in certain aspects, after stating that you deserve the Nobel Prize in Economics? And before that, will he understand that he must correct it as proposed by like-minded economists and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—either to devalue or accumulate reserves—or will he believe that his plan is perfect and the turbulence he faced for months was due to external factors? Read, the fear that the possibility of Kirchnerism winning this election generated among foreign investors and local savers.
If Milei’s speech last night, after learning of his electoral victory, gives us a glimpse of anything, it is that he will not modify his economic plan, but will deepen it, with the same officials, whom he defined as “colossi.” But it also remains to be seen if the head of state is willing to negotiate – and sometimes, agree on positions, some social policy or public works – with those governors and legislators who will control the votes that he will require to unblock his bills.
If the polls also show something else, it is that Peronism—or, to be more precise, Kirchnerism—lost, but Milei did not bury it. Yes, the former Minister of Economy and current Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof, emerged somewhat weakened from yesterday’s polls because his candidate lost by 0.54 points against his libertarian rival, but it remains to be seen how Kicillof will reach the presidential elections of 2027. Two years, in Argentina, is an eternity. Two years allowed Cristina Kirchner to recover as President from the midterm defeat she faced in 2009 and win her re-election in 2011. And two years took Mauricio Macri from the glory of victory in 2017 to losing his re-election in 2019.
The polls also showed that the voters who did go to the polls took the legislative election as a plebiscite between two antagonistic populist options—the libertarian and the Kirchnerist—and sank into inconsequentiality the moderate candidates, those who intended to transit and widen a supposed “middle avenue” that was not such. Because in the first national election that was organized with a single paper ballot (BUP) to vote in the history of this country, polarization prevailed. Again.
And yesterday’s polls gave Milei a lot of air, but not enough wings to fly alone.
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